ZURICH, Dec 13 (Reuters) – Switzerland’s government expects the country’s economic growth to slow next year, although it should avoid a recession, it said on Tuesday, with energy shortages unlikely to cause widespread output losses.
The economy will grow by 2.0% this year, in line with the September forecast, before slowing to 1.0% in 2023, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said.
“This would indicate slow growth in the Swiss economy, but not a severe recession,” SECO said in a statement.
It previously expected GDP to rise by 1.1% next year.
The figures, adjusted to remove the effect of major sporting events, predict no shortage of energy supplies either this winter or next.
“However, the energy situation in Europe is likely to remain tense due to high gas and electricity prices,” SECO said.
“Furthermore, high international inflation and tightening monetary policy are likely to curb demand.”
GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024, SECO said in its first forecast for the year as energy conditions normalize, inflation moderates and the global economy recovers.
Swiss inflation is expected to fall from a forecast 2.9% in 2022 to 2.2% next year, the ministry said, before falling to 1.5% in 2024.
Due to the large pharmaceutical sector and low unemployment, the Swiss economy has traditionally been one of the most sustainable in Europe.
Other agencies, such as the KOF Institute, cut their growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 but still expect manufacturing to pick up, while the PMI reading for November remained positive.
The Swiss National Bank will release its latest economic forecasts when it releases the results of its quarterly monetary policy review on Thursday.
Reporting by John Revill; Editing: Michael Shields
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