Rare Severe Weather Mid-December Forecast Issued for South Nearly a Week in Advance | Bot To News


The FOX Forecast Center is already warning of a possible outbreak of severe weather early next week in parts of the South, where tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail will be possible beginning Monday night.

A large upper-level low pressure system is forecast to bury many of the western mountains in feet of snow this weekend, then head east toward the plains Monday, where it will receive a shot of moisture flowing into north from the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, a powerful cold front associated with that area of ​​low pressure will move east across the southern Plains, triggering thunderstorm development as it moves through the warm, moist air mass. that surrounds the region.

HOW TO SEE THE TIME OF THE FOX

A depiction of the weather configuration that will drive a possible outbreak of severe weather in the South early next week.
(FOX time)

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center began flagging next week’s threat of severe weather Tuesday when issued a 7 day outlook for the following Monday highlighting portions of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley with a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

On Wednesday, that initial severe weather outlook became the Day 6 outlook, but another The 7th day outlook was issued for the following Tuesday. slightly east of Monday’s threat area, also a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, those two severe weather forecasts issued nearly a week in advance were the only Day 7 forecasts issued during the month of December since the SPC’s extended Days 4-8 forecast record began in March 2005.

EXPLANATION OF THE SPC 5-POINT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CATEGORY SCALE

Severe storm timing

Monday-Monday night

The severe weather threat on Monday will be centered from northern Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This includes the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Norman and Tulsa in Oklahoma, and Fort Smith in Arkansas.

Most severe thunderstorms will likely occur after dark Monday night into the evening hours when tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible.

Severe weather threat on Monday, December 12, 2022.
(FOX time)

Nighttime tornadoes are more than twice as likely to cause deaths than those that occur during the day because many people are asleep and surprised when a dangerous tornado could head their way.

NIGHT TORNADOES ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO BE DEADLY THAN DAYTIME TORNADOES

Make sure you have several ways to receive potentially life-saving weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service, including one that will wake you up at night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night

As the cold front continues to move eastward, the threat of severe storms will follow suit on Tuesday.

The greatest severe weather threat is expected to be concentrated from eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, central and northern Louisiana, western Mississippi, and far west Tennessee. That includes Little Rock in Arkansas, Shreveport in Louisiana, Jackson in Mississippi and Memphis in Tennessee.

Once again, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible with thunderstorms on Tuesday.

HOW YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR A TORNADO

Severe weather threat on Tuesday, December 13, 2022.
(FOX time)

The risk of severe weather on Wednesday remains uncertain as this system moves southeast, but current indications suggest a much more limited potential for severe storms due to less moisture available in the Gulf.

Are long-term severe weather prospects becoming more common?

spc forecaster liz leitman He told FOX Weather that it’s relatively uncommon to have high enough confidence to highlight a significant severe weather threat so far in advance at this time of year (it’s meteorological winter, after all), but it’s not entirely unprecedented thanks to recent advances in weather forecasting.

She said the new tools available to meteorologists can boost their confidence, allowing them to issue severe weather forecasts farther in advance than in previous years. The SPC is also trying to be more aggressive with its forecasts to raise awareness as far in advance as possible.

SPC SECRETS: HOW DAILY CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CHARTS ARE MADE

“We always get feedback that other (meteorologists) don’t like it when our (severe weather risk) areas move in the short term (Day 1-3), so given the uncertainty in the extended (outlook), we didn’t put many areas, knowing that they would probably move,” Leitman explained. “Over the past several years, it has become apparent that the above comments did not apply to the extended time range, so we are changing our approach.”

He went on to mention that a combination of new forecasting tools, a better understanding of public needs, and a shift in focus from extended 4-8 day outlooks have contributed to increasing forecaster confidence, allowing the SPC issue more frequent long-range forecasts. outlook without fear that people will lose confidence in their ability to accurately predict severe storms.





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