Loading cold before Christmas – The Morning Sun | Bot To News


We have been waiting for it to happen and it seems that colder and whiter scenes are coming. Below normal temperatures have been showing up in the 11-15 day forecast for about 2 weeks, but when that period moved to the 6-10 day forecast, the trends were much warmer. The weather pattern has supported a cold December, but it has been delayed and it is only a matter of time before it arrives.

We’re seeing signs that it’s finally on its way. Here’s a look at the latest run of the EPS (European Model Ensemble Mean) showing cooler than normal temperatures across much of the US over a 6-10 day period. This image is courtesy of the Tropical Tidbits website:

weather map chart
(Mid-Mitten Weather View)

This holds true for the period December 16-21, where the 5-day temperature is forecast to average cooler than normal. We will likely see a low pressure system bringing a winter mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow to central Michigan on Thursday, December 15, followed by a cold front bringing this cold air. How cold is the cold? Well, so far this month, we have mostly seen highs in the 30s, so at a minimum this should give us more highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. That being said, it also depends on how much snow we can put on the ground. The more snow cover we have, the greater the potential to see even colder air. The arctic air descending from Canada is certainly cold, but the air mass inevitably changes as it travels across different continents. In addition to our ensemble computer models, we are also supported by the East Asian weather pattern that favors cooler than normal temperatures between December 19 and December 23, as shown here:

weather map chart
(Mid-Mitten Weather View)

This cold should help make the environment favorable for lake-effect snow, as the lakes are still relatively warm in early winter. However, this is not all. The cold may return around the 23rd or 24th, just in time for Christmas. We may see a low pressure system move in at this time on Christmas Eve or the day before, which would likely be snow given how cold it will likely be.



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