Good morning and welcome to our ongoing coverage of business, financial markets and the global economy.
We’ll find out how the UK economy fared at the start of the final quarter of the year.
The October GDP report, due at 7am, is expected to show that the economy returned to growth during the month after contracting in September.
GDP is expected to have risen 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% drop in September, as rising inflation hit households and businesses and many businesses closed due to extra bank holidays due to Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral.
But economists also fear the UK economy is sliding into recession after contracting in the third quarter of 2022.
Sanjay Rajachief British economist at Deutsche Bankfears that the UK’s economic outlook is deteriorating.
Last week he told clients:
After the decrease in September (-0.6% monthly), which is mainly due to the holiday for the Queen’s funeral, we expect a modest increase in production. Our models indicate a GDP footprint close to 0.4% monthly. The survey data, however, paint a darker picture. The continued cost of living crisis, increased economic uncertainty and rising cost pressures point to a worsening outlook in the coming months.
What to expect in the future? We see that GDP contracted in the fourth quarter of 2022, but only by -0.1% in the quarter, pushing the UK into a technical recession. How long should the recession last? We expect the recession to last four quarters, with GDP contracting by about 1.5% from top to bottom, leaving GDP growth at -0.9% in 2023.
7:00 GMT: UK GDP report for October
7:00 GMT: UK trade report for October
13:00 GMT: Economic thinktank NIESR releases monthly UK GDP gauge for November
15.15 GMT: The UK Treasury Committee holds a hearing with senior officials on the work of the Treasury