EPIC as catalyst for NOAA’s Future Earth Prediction System | Bot To News

A new article published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society details how the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) is working to unify community weather modeling and advance numerical weather forecasting using open source and open science methods.

Written by current and former NOAA leaders Richard W. Spinrad, Louis W. Uccellini, Dorothy M. Koch, Craig N. McLean, and the late William M. Lapenta, the article provides a detailed history of class weather forecasting. NOAA and the recent development of EPIC and the Unified Forecast System to provide the best possible weather forecast for the nation.

The US economy has faced nearly $2 trillion in weather-related costs since 1980, with $95 billion in damage occurring in 2020 alone, the article notes. The costs of extreme weather events are increasing in the United States due to a combination of increased asset exposure in weather-prone regions, aging infrastructure, climate change, and the increasing incidence of multiple hazards. Our society relies on NOAA forecasts to predict hazards at various time scales and spatial dimensions to mitigate the impacts associated with increased extreme events. To meet these challenges, NOAA must build the best environmental information for the US population using large observational data sets, high-performance computing (HPC) and advanced numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, it says. Article.

The article notes that NOAA’s strategy involves unifying and simplifying the NWP model suite through the Unified Forecast System. EPIC, made possible by the Congress in 2019, is essential to drive the modeling strategy of the UFS community. EPIC is a virtual community model development environment that provides cloud-ready code management, community access to NOAA observations, data, and tools, community support and engagement, and clear research and model-to-model transition. operational priorities.

EPIC’s focus, the article explains, is to enable the Unified Forecast System (UFS), a comprehensive, coupled, community-based Earth modeling system, to become the most accurate and reliable operational numerical forecast model. of the world. Software engineering, software infrastructure, user support services, cloud-based HPC, scientific innovation, management and planning, and external and community engagement, EPIC’s main investment areas, they are essential to accomplishing NOAA’s mission. The authors say NOAA remains 100% committed to EPIC’s vision and is now inviting partners from across the weather enterprise through its web portal and community workshops and events to participate in this unified effort to advance weather forecasting for the benefit of of the society.

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EPIC’s facilitation of a constant flow of communication between research and operations and transparent testing that reflects operational requirements is critical to community engagement that leads to accelerated operational improvements.
Citation: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103, 10; 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0061.1

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